The AFC Divisional Round was intriguing at every level. The Cincinnati Bengals found a way to win despite tying the record for sacks allowed. They fought against the top seed in the AFC and won with a game-winning kick by a rookie kicker.
The Chiefs played in the greatest game in most fans’ lifetimes. They found a way to force overtime with 10 points after the 2-minute warning, and they walked off with a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes dominated once again, but they needed magic just to move past the Buffalo Bills.
Joe Burrow will be playing in Arrowhead for the first time, and a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. It’s easy to see why the Chiefs are favored by a touchdown after playing so well against the Bills. However, the Bengals have defied NFL odds all year. Here are keys for an upset in the AFC Championship.
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
It’s insane that the Bengals have made it this far with such a bad offensive line. It speaks to the electricity of the offense and the elusiveness of Joe Burrow. He makes something out of nothing, and he’s done it consistently in the postseason.
However, that can’t be the recipe for success against Kansas City. The Bengals need to go shot-for-shot with the Chiefs, and they can’t do that if Joe Burrow is running for his life. Some sacks are on Joe Burrow for holding onto the ball, but the failures of the offensive line have been apparent all year.
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The Bengals knew heading into 2021 that this was a weakness on the roster. They’ll address it in the offseason, but they need to get creative with protection in this game. Look for them to chip with running backs and tight ends. Joe Mixon will have to be a blocker more than he’s used to, and they're always needs to be a quick place for Burrow to throw the ball.
Burrow can do amazing things with the football, but he can only do that if he stays upright. This will be a point of emphasis for both teams.
Turnovers matter in every game, but you can’t expect to beat Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs avoid turnovers. This is one of the only ways you can keep things even with these teams, and it’s a way for the Bengals to flip the field and steal some points in key moments.
Cincinnati won the game against Tennessee because they forced turnovers in key moments. The bad news is that it will be much harder to do that against Mahomes.
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Not only is Mahomes one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, but he’s remained efficient so far this year. He somehow takes shots without the typical risk that comes with them. Some throws can be seen as dangerous or ill-advised, but he makes it work.
If the Chiefs have another clean game with the same explosive plays, the Bengals will lose this game. They might not even be able to cover if that’s what they’re up against. It’ll be on the defense to find a way to at least slow down the best offense in the NFL.
You can have a game plan about how you’re going to stop the Chiefs. That’s all great, but you can’t expect it to work. They beat Kansas City in the regular season, but you can’t fully believe that you can stop the rolling Chiefs offense at home in the AFC Championship. It’s wishful thinking at best.
Instead, you have to go into this game with the realistic expectation of winning a shootout. You might get a few key stops, but you have to realize that you’ll only slow down the Chiefs for so long. If they can score in 13 seconds, you’re never safe.
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So, what does that mean? The Bengals don’t need to play it safe at all. They need to go for it on fourth downs. Field goals won’t beat the Chiefs, and safe punts aren’t the answer. If you have any opportunity to score, you need at least seven points.
For your NFL picks, take risks. Call trick plays. Go for it on fourth down. If Cincinnati does all of these things, they might just be heading to the Super Bowl.