away from clinching the number one overall seed. While the Sixers could still lose this game and clinch number one, how to we gauge their motivation tonight with one key injury still up in the air?
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at Bankers Life Fieldhouse
The million dollar (literally) question this evening is whether Joel Embiid is healthy enough to play. He has been cropping up on the injury report lately as the Sixers make their way through the last week of their regular season, and it remains to be seen whether he will play tonight.
On one hand, if the Sixers beat the Pacers tonight, they will clinch the number one spot in the East and ensure home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
That could lead Doc Rivers to giving some of his players a game or two to rest down the stretch to gear up for the playoffs. After tonight, the Sixers finish up their schedule at Miami on Thursday and then a home-and-home against the Magic.
I can almost guarantee that the Sixers will take the two against the Magic lightly, so in order to not be too rusty heading into the postseason next week, Philly may end up playing everyone tonight since we’re still a week out from the playoffs.
However, if Embiid is legitimately hurting, it may be wise to give him some time to heel now, which is what makes this game to difficult to handicap.
On top of all this, the Pacers played without their starting point guard, Malcolm Brogdon, last night, and coming off the back-to-back, it’s even tougher to tell what their injury report will look like. Coming in off a game last night means they won’t have their injury report out until later this afternoon or evening.
Considering the Sixers will already be without some defensive wing depth tonight missing Matisse Thybule and Furkan Korkmaz, the Pacers won’t be as exposed in that area of the court. If Embiid also sits out, the Pacers could be the play here if we can get Brogdon back on the court.
However, it’s been incredibly tough to back the Pacers ATS this season, especially at home. Indiana is just 10-23 ATS when playing from Bankers Life Fieldhouse this season and against a team that has a chance to clinch the top playoff spot tonight, it’s going to be hard to trust them.
However, the better play on this game may come from the first half.
The Sixers’ first half defense has been incredible this season, but on the road, it gets dicey. Their first half defensive rating goes from 104.1 at home to 109.6 on the road, and they tend to push the pace even faster when they get out on the road.
On the flip side, the Pacers have turned into a super-fast team, especially in first halves. Indiana ranks tied for third in the league in home first half pace, while giving up close to 112 points per 100 possessions in those games.
I also think this play is Embiid-proof. If Embiid plays, that will help the Sixers’ offense enough to cash the over in the first half. If he sits, the Sixers should increase their pace and could get into a race with this Pacers team, which should also help us out.
However, I would wait until the Embiid news is official either way, because if he sits, you’ll get a better price than the current market rate.
NBA Pick: 1st Half Over 119 (-110) at Bovada