76ers vs. Mavericks Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
The Philadelphia 76ers aren’t all that. Instead, consider the Dallas Mavericks for your NBA picks when they meet Friday night in Big D.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, February 4, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Need further proof that life is unfair? Joel Embiid is now the favorite to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award. As we go to press, the Philadelphia 76ers center is +200 on the NBA odds board with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), ahead of Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic at +350.
We’ve heard chatter all year that voters aren’t too keen on handing Jokic another MVP trophy, even though he’s playing even better than last year. This cements it. It also opens up an opportunity to make some sharp NBA picks.
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Embiid may be playing well, and the Sixers (31-20 SU, 25-25-1 ATS) may be in the thick of the Eastern Conference race, but it’s the Dallas Mavericks (29-23 SU, 26-26 ATS) who have all the betting value for Friday’s contest. That’s provided they open at around –1 like they have overseas.
Compare and Contrast
If they do, the numbers back us up. FiveThirtyEight like Dallas to win this game by 2.5 points, which means we still don’t have the preferred 2-point gap between the projections and the NBA lines, but it’s close enough for at least a fun-size bet on the Mavs.
The numbers also show how ridiculous it is that Jokic isn’t the MVP favorite. And we don’t just mean the advanced stats, either. Let’s compare Jokic and Embiid by their very raw per-game numbers:
- Jokic: 25.9 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks
- Embiid: 31.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks
As you can see, Embiid has the edge in the gaudiest stat of them all: points per game. And he’s swatted away more shots, too. But Jokic has a significant edge in the other, less celebrated categories. He’s also played 1,485 minutes this year; Embiid has played 1,286. That’s basically four more complete games in which Jokic was able to weave his magic for Denver. So there.
That’s Just Science
Okay, fine, here are the advanced stats: Jokic leads all qualifying players at Basketball Reference with a Box Plus/Minus of plus-14.4. Embiid is a distant third at plus-9.2. Do you prefer Value Over Replacement Player? It’s Jokic on top at plus-6.2, and Embiid in third again at plus-3.6.
Win Shares? Jokic has 9.4 thus far, Embiid is sixth at 6.9. I could go on. The point here is that Embiid and the Sixers are getting too much love, which is why the Mavericks look like they’ll be available at a bargain price.
From a value perspective, it may have even helped our cause that Kristaps Porzingis (plus-3.2 BPM) has to sit this one out with a bruised right knee. The Mavs still have Luka Doncic (plus-6.6 BPM) ready to roll, and just like Embiid, his level of play has also risen substantially of late. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.