The Philadelphia 76ers used some better bench play in Game 2 to even the series with the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday. Now the teams will face off in Atlanta on ESPN in a critical Game 3. The Hawks have won 13 straight home games and are 21-2 in their last 23 home games.
Friday, June 11, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
The 76ers are a 1.5-point favorite at many top sportsbooks. In NBA playoff series that have played out like this one so far (home team drops Game 1 and wins Game 2), the higher seed (76ers) is only 46-64 (.418) in Game 3. Philadelphia, playing with a shorthanded roster, lost its only game in Atlanta this season, a 112-94 defeat back in January.
We know Game 1 was a unique case of the 76ers’ bench failing them while Atlanta’s reserves thrived. The 76ers dominated the second half and that seemed to carry over into Game 2 as the team built a 28-10 lead in the first quarter. However, much like Game 1, the starters went to the bench and the Hawks immediately got back into the game, shrinking the lead to five points.
Atlanta even took its only lead of the game late in the third quarter, but it lasted a whopping 22 seconds thanks to a major contribution from the Philadelphia bench from Shake Milton. He had been a bust this postseason, averaging 2.8 points per game while shooting 21.1% from the field. However, head coach Doc Rivers gave him another opportunity and Milton delivered by hitting four threes on his way to 14 points. The 76ers were plus-15 in Milton’s 14 minutes on the court, including a clutch three to beat the buzzer at the end of the third quarter. That gave Philadelphia a 91-84 lead and the margin only grew from there in the 118-102 win.
Atlanta, according to betting sites, can feel good in thinking Milton won’t play that well again, but maybe this spark will give him confidence to help the 76ers’ bench out. It still really needs it as the Hawks are feasting with the reserves in this series. Kevin Huerter (20 points; his most since April 25) and Danilo Gallinari (21 points) both had sharpshooter performances with at least 20 points off the bench.
Much like Game 1, the Hawks’ starters were all negative in the box score while all the Philadelphia starters were at least a plus-10. If the theory is that bench players play better in front of the home crowd, then that will be something to watch in this one as Atlanta’s already getting such great production there. Huerter shoots the three at 40.6% at home versus 32.0% on the road. Gallinari shoots 47.9% from the field at home this season compared to 39.5% on the road.
One Atlanta player who shoots the three almost identically at home (34.4%) and the road (34.1%) is Trae Young, who played poorly in Game 2 and will be looking to rebound here. The Hawks are 19-1 this season when Young scores at least 32 points, and the only loss was against Philadelphia in April.
The problem is the 76ers clearly have the best player in this series.
With the fireworks in the Brooklyn-Milwaukee series badly fizzling out, it may be time to appreciate that the 76ers won this conference’s top seed despite Joel Embiid missing 21 games during what has been the best season of his career.
Now Embiid is having his best playoff run. In the five games he finished, he has shot at least 52% from the field in each of them. His 39 points in Game 1 against Atlanta were a playoff career high and he topped that with 40 points in Game 2. He is shooting efficiently and taking 15.5 free throws per game in this series. Atlanta seemingly has no answers for him.
Embiid’s consistency gives the 76ers options with their talented starting lineup. Ben Simmons only scored four points in Game 2. He did not have a bad shooting night by any means. He only took three shots as he focused a lot of his attention on defense in guarding Young, who shot 6-of-16 from the field. Young has been a minus-11 in both games against the 76ers.
The 76ers are also quietly getting a nice postseason out of Tobias Harris, who is averaging 23.9 points per game and shooting 52.7% from the field, both up from 19.2 points and 51.2% in the regular season. Seth Curry has found a hot hand with at least 21 points in three straight playoff games.
Just based on the starting five for each team, this series would be a Philadelphia sweep. For your betting odds, players have to get some rest and the bench is where the Hawks can make up the difference in this series.
The 76ers (26-16-1 ATS) have the league’s second-best spread record when playing on equal rest this season. Atlanta has been doing great things at home, but I still strongly believe that the 76ers are the better team with the best player in the series. Game 1 was the team’s wake-up call and Philadelphia has largely controlled play since then. For my NBA picks on Friday night, I like Embiid and company to pull out Game 3 and take their first lead in the series.
NBA Pick: 76ers -1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.