Top NFL Pick: Chiefs +2 (-105) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Super Bowl 58 will be contested by the teams many predicted would be suiting up in February when the season began last September – the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers taking place in Sin City on February 11th.
It is the final game of the 2023 season, so let’s see what Swinger has for us to play at top-rated online sportsbooks!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL ATS Record: 31-31-1 ATS (-12.89 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL ML Record: 0-3 ML (-11.25 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Conference Championship Round Recap
I have bet the moneyline three times earlier this season with 1 unit on the Patriots (+151) and 1 unit on the Titans (+100). Both of those wagers tanked but they didn’t do too much damage. However, the 5-units I wagered on the Ravens both on the point spread -3 (-133 buying the hook) and the moneyline (-185) crippled me last week.
I don’t often bet 5-units on a game and, out of the hundreds of games available throughout the season, I’ve only done so a handful of times with decent success…until the Ravens did me dirty when they lost, 17-10, against the Chiefs. A total of 15.90 units was lost in one game, which crushed any hopes that we would be profitable this season.
By the time that game was done, so was I.
All Said and Done
I barely even saw the late game featuring the Lions and the 49ers but I have since mustered the strength to watch the highlights. At least the Lions brought home 3 units to the good but overall, it was a bloodbath.
After it was all said and done, I dropped 12.90 units in one afternoon which was more than I lost all season. How’s that for money management, kids? I won’t go over the shoulda, woulda, coulda’s in the Baltimore loss because why waste our time?
Let’s move on to the biggest party of the year and have a good time getting our groove on during Super Bowl 58!
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Key Stats
- San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City is 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 games against San Francisco.
We hear the familiar refrain that quarterback is the most important position in sports. It’s hard to disagree with that assertion but show me an elite quarterback with a lousy offensive line against a good quarterback with a tremendous offensive line and I’ll take the latter.
You can’t pass if you’re on your back but fortunately, the two quarterbacks playing on Sunday have decent, albeit unspectacular, offensive lines in front of them.
However, it’s also important to note that the Chiefs defeated the Ravens, 17-10, without the services of their best offensive lineman, left guard, Joe Thuney (pectoral injury). The First Team All-Pro this season still has a shot at playing in this one.
Different Levels
Speaking of quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes is one of the best to ever throw a pass in the NFL. He also has excellent mobility, and as much as we all want to root for Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, he’s no Patrick Mahomes.
That’s not a slight against him because right now, nobody is at Mahomes’ level.
That might be the single best reason to side with the Chiefs, and when factoring in Mahomes’ experience in Super Bowl games, having been to three and winning two, it’s hard to bet against him.
Let’s switch gears and talk about the defenses of each team.
Defense – 49ers vs. Chiefs
- Points Allowed: No. 2 Chiefs (17.3 PPG) vs. No. 3 49ers (17.5 PPG)
- Passing Yards Allowed: No. 4 Chiefs (176.5 PYG) vs. No. 14 49ers (214.2 PYG)
- Rushing Yards Allowed: No. 3 49ers (89.7 RYG) vs. No. 18 Chiefs (113.2 RYG)
Although no one is going to consistently stop San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, I question whether this KC passing defense and the moment itself will be too big for Brock Purdy.
I think it will be.
The script for this game that I have conjured shows the Chiefs striking early and the 49ers catching fire late. The game goes high but the underdog gets the outright win.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – 49ers 23
NFL Pick: Over 47 ½ (-105) for 3 units at Bovada
The Woodman’s Corner (10-11 ATS)
They say great minds think alike.
Well, apparently, that age-old adage also pertains to struggling handicappers but fortunately, the Woodman and I were both on the Lions in the NFC Championship. As we all know, Detroit got a backdoor cover as 7-point road dogs despite outplaying San Francisco throughout the first half of their game two weeks ago.
However, the Lions clearly forgot that there are two halves to every game and suffered a 34-31 loss as a result.
The Woodman is now on the precipice of a .500 season after a brutal start to the 2023 NFL campaign. And although I disagree with him, there are millions in the 49ers camp this Sunday but not one quite as strange as the man we call the Woodman.
For the last time this season, he’s telling all who will listen to Bet the Farm on the Niners!
Woodman’s Pick: 49ers -2 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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