2023 NFL Draft: Best 1st Round Props to Bet Today (Archive)
NFL Pick: Under 1.5 Running Backs Drafted in First Round (+130) at BetOnline
If you look at the 2023 NFL draft and feel confused over which players are going to which teams, you are not alone. This class is setting records for misdirection and plot twists when it comes to matching these prospects with their future teams.
But we are so close to the first round taking place this Thursday night where everything will be settled.
If you feel like you know the players better than the fits in the NFL for them, then you may find great value in placing your betting picks on the 1st round props found at BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks for US bettors.
We are going to look at the best value bets you can make on these props before Thursday night.
Total Running Backs Drafted in First Round
- Over/Under 1.5
Running backs have been devalued in the NFL draft, and it is hard to argue with the reasoning. Time and time again, teams find value later in the draft, or with street-free agents for that matter. The Chiefs have already won two Super Bowls with Darrel Williams and Isiah Pacheco as their primary ball carriers since 2019.
It is a position that lends itself to a short prime these days, and the value is usually not there in the first round. In this draft, most expect Texas running back Bijan Robinson to go somewhere in the first round.
But this betting market is basically asking if Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs will join him as a second. The -170 NFL odds favor that happening, but let’s go with the value of saying no to another first-round back.
Use Previous Drafts as Reference
Three of the last four NFL drafts did not produce multiple first-round running backs, and the only one that did (2021) saw the Jaguars take Travis Etienne as a supposed luxury receiving option for Trevor Lawrence, his college teammate at Clemson.
Some have been projecting Gibbs to the Bengals at No. 28. While there is a need there, the Bengals really could not afford to not keep taking some swings in the trenches. You can also never have enough good defensive backs in this league.
If Gibbs clears Cincinnati at 28, it should be home sailing to the second round for him, as the Saints have Alvin Kamara, the Eagles should prefer Bijan Robinson, and the Chiefs hopefully learned from their Clyde Edwards-Helaire nightmare pick in 2020.
Robinson or bust when it comes to this running back class in the first round.
NFL Pick: Under 1.5 Running Backs Drafted in First Round (+130) at BetOnline
Total ACC Players Drafted in First Round
- Over/Under 3.5
We start things off with what should be an easy over to hit. The ACC is projected by many sites to get over 3.5 players in the first round. Let’s go over some of the near locks for this betting market.
- QB Anthony Richardson, Florida: Whether he goes to the Texans, Colts, or somewhere else, Richardson is almost certainly a first-round pick out of Florida.
- WR Zay Flowers, Boston College: Everyone has their favorites and faults to find with this year’s wide receiver class, but Zay Flowers has been a riser and could be the second wideout off the board after Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
- Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson: This edge rusher has been mocked to several teams in the 20s, including the Chargers, Saints, Seahawks, and Jaguars.
Those three should be really solid picks, but there are a few more candidates who can push this over:
- DT Bryan Bresee (Clemson): Has been linked to teams late in the first round like the Eagles and Ravens.
- OG O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida): Has an overall rank of 29th at NFL Mock Draft Database, going in the first round in 56.9% of mock drafts.
- DL Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh): Has been frequently mocked to the Lions at No. 18
NFL Pick: Over 3.5 ACC Players Drafted in First Round (-220) at BetOnline
Total Tight Ends Drafted in First Round
- Over/Under 2.5
While not quite like running back, tight end is a position that has a strong history of finding great players after the first round. Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle are the three greatest tight ends of the last decade (or longer), and none of them were first-round picks. The same can be said about Jason Witten, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates, and many more.
Meanwhile, a lot of first-round tight ends have burned teams in recent years, including O.J. Howard, Jermaine Gresham, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Eifert, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron, etc.
It is a great position to have an elite player, but you usually do not need to use the first round to do that. But most analysts agree this 2023 class has some strong prospects. It’s just that some of them may make excellent second-round picks rather than first-round picks.
The Top Prospects
Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) could absolutely go as first-round picks, though not everyone has them mocked in the top 31 this year.
The wild card is Darnell Washington (Georgia), who is going in the first round of 31.6% mock drafts, according to NFL Mock Draft Database. But a lot of people like him for the Packers in the second round, which would mean the Packers will not be a team using the No. 13 pick on a tight end like Kincaid in the first round.
A team like Dallas could certainly use a tight end after losing Dalton Schultz. But this feels like a safe pick to take the under 2.5 as we rarely see the over hit for this position in the draft.
NFL Pick: Under 2.5 Tight Ends Drafted in First Round (-300) at BetOnline
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in First Round
- Over/Under 4.5
This is basically the same market as Hendon Hooker’s draft position over/under. The Tennessee quarterback should make or break this bet, because we have a strong inkling that Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson will be drafted in the first round.
That makes Hooker the fifth guy in the class. Some have mocked him to the Vikings, but they were not on the radar for Hooker until NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocked him to Minnesota weeks ago. Suddenly, the Vikings are the odds-on favorite, even though they still have Kirk Cousins, and Hooker will be a 25-year-old project coming out of a gimmicky offense with a torn ACL to recover from.
Is that the kind of project Pete Carroll, the oldest coach in the NFL, wants to take on in Seattle behind Geno Smith? Not likely. It also may be too much of a reach for the Tennessee Titans in the first round.
Teams Need to Be Careful
For all the hype about how a rookie first-round quarterback is the best contract to have, the fact is you better know by Year 3 if that player is worth signing to a huge second deal or not. You do not want to get into Lamar-Jackson-contract purgatory like the Ravens are. You also do not want to possibly overpay for something that is really not that great, like the Giants just did with Daniel Jones.
Consider the contract Jalen Hurts just received in Philadelphia after his third season (and second as a starter). That is what nailing a pick like this looks like financially.
Also, the Chiefs just won a Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes taking up over 17% of the cap, so the cheap rookie deal is overrated. You still need a great player and some great teammates to pull this off.
Hooker is too much of a risk in the first round, so we will take the under 4.5 first-round quarterbacks.
NFL Pick: Under 4.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in First Round (+145) at BetOnline
Total Wide Receivers Drafted in First Round
- Over/Under 3.5
By contract amount and draft capital, wide receiver has become a premium position in the NFL. Teams understand the importance of finding a special one for their quarterback, and some try their best to find a second-quality receiver. The replacement plan is always in the back of your mind as well.
This 2023 draft class is not beloved by scouts, as it does not contain a slam-dunk prospect like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, or Ja’Marr Chase. But there are four players who traditionally rank among the top 30 prospects with good odds of going in the first round:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
- Quentin Johnston (TCU)
- Jordan Addison (USC)
- Zay Flowers (Boston College)
If this bet is hitting over 3.5, it should be these players who pull it off. It is possible no one bites on a wide receiver until Chicago at No. 9, and even then, Green Bay at No. 13 may be the most realistic landing spot for Smith-Njigba, considered the best.
Who Needs the Help?
But there tends to be a run on wide receivers in most drafts, and we could see one here with these needy teams lined up:
- No. 9 Chicago: Justin Fields needs more weapons even after the trade involving D.J. Moore
- No. 11 Tennessee: Still reeling from the mistake of trading A.J. Brown a year ago
- No. 12 Houston: No quarterback, no weapons
- No. 13 Green Bay: Would be ironic to wait until Aaron Rodgers leaves, but the loss of Davante Adams mattered
- No. 14 New England: Major talent deficiency here
- No. 15 NY Jets: Keep Aaron Rodgers happy
- No. 21 LA Chargers: Too many injuries for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams left Justin Herbert out to dry
- No. 22 Baltimore: Lamar Jackson (or the next QB) needs a young weapon as Odell Beckham Jr. is a desperation move
- No. 23 Minnesota: Give Justin Jefferson a new running mate after Adam Thielen left
- No. 25 NY Giants: They paid Daniel Jones, so let’s give him a weapon who can stay on the field and produce
- No. 26 Dallas: Never count out Jerry Jones here after Michael Gallup looked slow and the Beckham signing never happened
- No. 27 Buffalo: Gabe Davis’ route limitations showed up a lot last year as they needed a better No. 2 behind Stefon Diggs
- No. 31 Kansas City: They missed out in past years on Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf, and they can still use the long-term replacement for Tyreek Hill after last year’s committee approach
Most of these teams will not take a wide receiver in the first round, but when 13 can easily justify pulling the trigger on one of these four, we like the odds of the over 3.5 hitting here.
NFL Pick: Over 3.5 Wide Receivers Drafted in First Round (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.