2022 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bets for April 17 (Archive)
Two men remain in the ATP Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters 1000 event. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Stefanos Tsitsipas will take the court and the winner will receive 1000 ATP ranking points. This should be a great match between two top players. After looking at the ATP odds, who is the right ATP pick?
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Sunday, April 17, 2022 – 08:30 AM EDT at Court Rainier III
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prevailed against Grigor Dimitrov in a tight three-set affair.
Davidovich Fokina won the first set and was serving for the match in set 2 when he failed to hold serve at 5-4. Dimitrov stormed back and won the second set 7-6. Davidovich Fokina did not fall apart after the setback and was able to get the decisive break to win the third set 6-3.
It was an impressive win for the 22-year-old Spanish player who has achieved the best tournament result in his career. This will be his first Masters 1000 final.
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was able to control the match from the baseline. His backhand looked particularly impressive as he was able to dial-up blistering shots filled with pace to put Dimitrov on the defensive.
Davidovich Fokina's strong backhand fared well against Dimitrov's one-handed backhand. He will face another one-handed backhand in the final vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's ability to create pace from the backhand side could be the difference in our matchup today.
The win over Grigor Dimitrov moved Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to number 27 in the rankings. The move is important because now he will be seeded in the French Open, possibly giving him a much more favorable draw.
The ranking points will definitely come in handy for him to continue his success by avoiding the top players in the early rounds.
The win in the second round over Novak Djokovic seems to have spurred increased confidence in the play of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Davidovich Fokina has looked free on the court, not afraid to make mistakes when trying to squeeze winners into tight margins. This lack of fear when approaching the game has been helpful for Davidovich Fokina.
He will have that advantage again today as all the pressure and expectations will be on his opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas. So far, Davidovich Fokina is showing that he can play the role of the underdog well. Can he pull it off one more time and get the win today?
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas almost fell in the quarterfinals against Diego Schwartzman. Tsitsipas was down 4-0 in the third set before ripping off six games in a row to grab the third set in one of the most impressive comebacks we have seen from a player who is not one of the Big 3.
Tsitsipas' ability to remain calm under pressure and dig deep was outstanding and is a strong indicator that his early-season struggles may be behind him as he is now on his preferred surface of the clay.
Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated Alexander Zverev in the semifinal. The two men have a budding rivalry. They are both close to the same age. Zverev is 24; Tsitsipas is 23. They have now played each other already 10 times in their young careers.
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These two men know each others’ game well. Tsitsipas looked sharp and his consistency from the baseline won the day against the big-serving German Alexander Zverev.
Best Bets
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is massively undervalued here going into this men's final. Davidovich Fokina has been playing great and has risen to every challenge that has come up this week in Monte Carlo. He appears quite comfortable and he is using the role of underdog to his advantage.
Yes, Stefanos Tsitsipas is the more accomplished player. He is the defending Champion here in Monte Carlo, and we have seen him come through in big moments like these before. Yet, if we just take their forms from this week, Davidovich Fokina is right there with Tsitsipas in his ability to rise to the level needed to get the victory.
Of course, past performance must be taken into account, but in this case, the name value of Stefanos Tsitsipas is getting far too heavy consideration when making these ATP odds.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will have the advantage in backhand to backhand rallies. Stefanos Tsitsipas has an excellent ability to blast his one-handed backhand down the line for winners. But in the crosscourt rallies, Davidovich Fokina will have the edge.
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Against Grigor Dimitrov, Davidovich Fokina's ability to hit a flat two-handed backhand with blistering pace played well against Dimitrov's one-handed backhand. We will see a similar situation today.
Although Tsitsipas uses more topspin than Dimitrov, Davidovich Fokina can still play strong against that shot. His strategy of taking the ball early worked well against Dimitrov and I see it working well against Tsitsipas’ looping backhand today.
Tsitsipas does have the stronger serve, but the serve is far less important on clay than it is on the hardcourts or on grass. Davidovich Fokina has a great chance to get the outright win, but we will play it safe with today's best bet.
Our best bet for today's ATP Rolex Monte Carlo Masters 1000 final is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +4 games.
ATP Pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +4 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.