2022 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix Expert Analysis and Best Bets (Archive)
The finals at the Porsche Grand Prix in Stuttgart are here. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will face off with 500 ranking points and the keys to a brand new Porsche on the line.
Swiatek is favored by WTA odds, but is she the right pick for today’s finals?
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
Sunday, April 24, 2022 – 07:00 AM EDT at Center Court
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka answered questions about her mental fortitude in pressure situations in her win over her doubles partner Paula Badosa on Saturday. This match was the first contest between two players in the top five during the 2022 WTA season. Sabalenka was down a break in the first set and 2 mini-breaks in the tiebreak yet fought hard to overcome Badosa.
While Badosa is known for her ability to get things done on the pressure-packed points, it was Sabalenka who raised her play with the match on the line. After squeaking out the first set, she lost the opening game of the second set, giving Badosa a chance to regain the momentum for the match.
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She instantly broke back to even the second set at 1-1. They remained on serve until 5-4 when she broke Badosa to get the win. The Belarusian player got the win in 100 minutes. It was an efficient effort that should leave her well-rested and ready for today's final.
Sabalenka showed she has improved her second serve by winning 57% of her second serve points. She saved six of the eight break points that she faced. Sabalenka is 10-8 on the year, with a hold percentage of 69.8% and a break percentage of 36.1%.
For her career, she is 32-17 on clay with a hold percentage of 71.1% and a break percentage of 38.9%. For the last year, she is 17-4 on clay with a hold percentage of 77.4% and a break percentage of 41.1%
Impressive Streak
Saturday's win continued an impressive streak of victories for Aryna Sabalenka. By defeating Bianca Andreescu, Anett Kontaveit, and Paula Badosa all this week, she was able to defeat three of the top contenders for any tournament in the WTA. Sabalenka’s win over Kontaveit ended Kontaviet’s 22-match indoor court winning streak.
Sabalenka's ability to get things done under pressure will definitely increase her confidence heading into the clay-court swing. The Belarusian has not had the best start to the year, but if she continues to play like this she will instantly erase any of the doubts created by her early-season malaise.
Aryna Sabalenka was a finalist here last season, so she has successfully defended all the ranking points that she accumulated last year. She can take it one step further with a win today. Sabalenka is 10-5 in her career in finals. She was 2-1 in the finals last season with her lone loss being here in Stuttgart against Ash Barty.
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek is coming along on a 22-match winning streak. Swiatek looks absolutely unstoppable right now. The Polish player had not lost a set since March 15th, before dropping a set in her win over Ludmilla Samsonova today. Against Samsonova, Swiatek lost the first set in a tie-break. She fought back, however, to prevail 6-7, 6-4, 7-5.
It was an excellent performance by Ludmila Samsonova, who pushed Swiatek to the brink of defeat. Only a steely mental performance and a championship-level resolve were able to save the day for Swiatek. It was the closest match she's had played in over a month. Swiatek's last loss was on February 16th against Jelena Ostapenko.
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Iga Swiatek is 30-4 on the year, with a hold percentage of 76.2% and a break percentage of 55%. For her career, she is 28-7 on clay with a hold percentage of 74.9% and a break percentage of 49.7%. For the last year, she is 14-3 on clay with a hold percentage of 80.3% and a break percentage of 45.5%
Swiatek is the clear-cut number one player in the world. However, she will face a tough test today against Aryna Sabalenka, who is in the best form that we have seen her in since her dominating run to the end of 2020.
Betting Analysis
Sabalenka is the more powerful player; Swiatek is the more complete player. Sabalenka will be hitting a more powerful shot, but Swiatek's power is definitely enough to hit winners. Swiatek will have an advantage when it comes to defensive tennis.
The Polish player is much faster with better court coverage, and also has a variety of ways to change the pace and keep her opponents off balance. Swiatek is equally masterful at hitting with topspin or slice from almost anywhere on the court. Swiatek does a great job of keeping her groundstrokes in the back half of the court right by the baseline.
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This dominance in the court position allows her to control points and gives her the advantage in her point construction. It will be a battle of power versus grace. Both players will be able to pressure their opponents. Which player will be more adept to withstand the pressure?
WTA Pick
I like Iga Swiatek to get the victory here today. Her level play is something we have not seen on the WTA tour since Serena Williams' run of dominance. Aryna Sabalenka’s ability to hit powerful winners will test Swiatek’s defenses. But in the end, Swiatek's combination of consistency and brilliant tactics will be the difference in this match.
It's going to be hard to get me to bet against Swiatek this season. Today will be no different. Our best bets for today's WTA Stuttgart Porsche Grand Prix final are on Iga Swiatek spread and moneyline.
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek -3.5 Games (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek ML (-245) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.