The tennis action continues on the men’s side in the Mutua Madrid Open.
Two Spanish players supported by the home crowd will be featured on today’s slate. Let’s take a look at these matches in order to find more winning ATP picks.
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 – 10:00 AM EDT at Manolo Santana Stadium
While Carlos Alcaraz is the prince of clay, Rafael Nadal is still the undisputed king. Rafael Nadal has had an excellent 2021 and just to give you an idea, did you know he did not drop a match, this year, until March 20, against Taylor Fritz at Indian Wells?
That is Nadal’s only loss of the season. While Nadal is getting a little bit older, and his legendary stamina is not what it once was, he is still a force to be reckoned with when you consider his skill, talent, and experience.
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David Goffin is an accomplished clay court player who is also in the twilight of his career. Still, Goffin's vast experience on clay makes him a threat to almost any ATP player. Goffin is not the hardest hitter, but he has excellent lateral quickness and court coverage.
The Belgian excels in the defensive style of play and can put any ATP player to the test. Players often get frustrated and rattled going against Goffin because they feel like they have to hit 2 to 3 winner caliber shots in order to actually hit a winner. Goffin's ability to grind and ask questions of his opponents has made him a constant on the clay court scene for the past decade.
David Goffin and Rafael Nadal have played each other 7 times. Nadal has the head-to-head advantage of 5-2. Goffin did win the most recent match however in 2020. Regardless, Nadal is almost immune to Goffin’s tactic of grinding his opponent into submission. Nadal employs the same tactic and does it with more skill.
Nadal also has the advantage and then he is better at the offensive style of tennis. Nadal will not be discouraged or fatigued by the long rallies that Goffin prefers. Rather, it will be right in Nadal's wheelhouse.
I like Rafael Nadal to get the win here today and continue on his path towards meeting Carlos Alcaraz. While David Goffin is good, they both employ the same style, and Nadal just executes the style better.
There are reasons that Nadal is one of the best players of all time and has the most French Open titles, while Goffin has simply made a good living on the clay. Nadal is one level above Goffin and he will show it today. Our first bet for today's Mutua Madrid Open is Rafael Nadal -5.5 games.
ATP Pick: Rafael Nadal -5.5 Games (+106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 - 02:00 PM EDT at Manolo Santana Stadium
Carlos Alcaraz is the most talented young player in the ATP and the heir apparent for the title of clay-court king to Rafael Nadal. Alcaraz is taking the tennis world by storm with his rapid ascension through the ranks. Alcaraz plays with a brash confidence that leads to brilliant shotmaking.
The Spaniard continues to impress tennis observers with his combination of power, skill, and touch. We have not seen a player like this since… Rafael Nadal.
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This is an intriguing tournament to have the Spanish King and the Spanish Prince playing at the same time. Both Spaniards have cut through the field like a knife cuts through butter. They seem destined to meet at some point here in this tournament, in front of their home fans.
Who will the crowd support if they do meet? Will they support the hard-charging youngster, the future of the sport? Or will they support the reigning champion, the current king of clay?
To get there, however, they both face tough matches. Carlos Alcaraz will be facing Cameron Norrie. Norrie defeated John Isner in 3 hard-fought sets in his most recent outing. The British player will face the polar opposite in styles today after facing the tall, lanky, serve-oriented Isner.
John Isner has one of the best serves on tour, yet he rarely breaks his opponents. Isner is one-dimensional in the fact that he relies on service games and prowess in tiebreaks in order to defeat his opponents. Isner will rarely threaten an opponent's serve, and when you have a serve as good as Cam Norrie's, it is easy to hold serve against the likes of Isner.
Norrie will face the exact opposite challenge today in the brilliant, well-rounded Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz is dominant from the baseline, even when in a defensive position, he can counterpunch his way to controlling the court within 2 to 3 shots.
Alcaraz will not allow him to play too defensively because his deft use of drop shots always is in the mind of opponents who try to play too far back behind the baseline to deal with the youngster's depth and topspin. Against Alcaraz, Norrie will need to take control of points early.
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Fortunately for Norrie, the clay in Madrid plays quickly which will give him a chance to become aggressive early in the points. Norrie will want to avoid long, drawn-out rallies against Alcaraz. Even at a young age, Alcaraz has the advantage on the baseline against most opponents in the ATP, including Cameron Norrie.
As well as Cameron Norrie is playing, I like Carlos Alcaraz to get the win at home here. Alcaraz is simply too good, and on his preferred surface of the clay, it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat him. Alcaraz already has excellent consistency for a player of his age.
His development is truly a marvel as he is already a top player in point construction at such a young age. Unfortunately for Norrie, the brilliance of Alcaraz will be too much today. Our last bet for today is Carlos Alcaraz on the spread with the current ATP odds at -5 games.
ATP Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -5 Games (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.