2022 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Best Bets for February 25 (Archive)
The ATP Dubai trophy is up for grabs as only four men remain in the tournament. After today’s upset of Novak Djokovic, the field is wide open and all men have their eyes on the lucrative prize.
Let’s take a look at the remaining matches to find a winning ATP pick.
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Andrey Rublev
Friday, February 25, 2022 – 08:00 AM EST at Center Court
Betting Preview
Hubert Hurkacz is coming off an impressive win over the world number 10 Jannik Sinner. I felt that Sinner would have the advantage over Hurkacz here but the Polish proved many doubters and myself wrong with the upset victory.
Hurkacz scored 6 aces and only 2 double faults. He had only a 57% first-serve percentage but managed to win 82% (23-28) of those points. Where he really took the match, however, was his ability to win on second service points.
Hurkacz was an impressive 62% (13-21) on the second serve while his opponent Sinner was only 28% (5-18). Due to the second serve dominance, Hurkacz did not face a break point in the whole match. He managed to break Sinner three times en route to a 6-3, 6-3 routine victory.
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The Polish player has had an impressive tournament here, and now he looks to move into the top 10 in the world with the win over Sinner.
Hurkacz has not dropped a set in this tournament so far and has spent the least amount of time on-court of any player remaining in the draw. He has been able to win and win efficiently, conserving his energy for a strong stretch run.
The Polish has been labeled as a serve and forehand player, but he has shown much more than that in his wins this week. Similar to his opponent tonight Andrey Rublev, Hurkacz has developed an excellent ability to compete in the baseline to baseline rallies and that has been a key to his move up the rankings.
Betting Analysis
Many ATP players can blast a big serve and get a winner off of a weak return, but it is the ability to grind out extended rallies from neutral positions that really separates the top men from the middle tier.
Hurkacz's development in this regard has been outstanding and if he continues this success he could make some noise at the Grand Slam tournaments this season.
His opponent tonight, Andrey Rublev also made the same leap in baseline efficiency. Andrey Rublev was once simply a power player but now has developed diverse ways to attack and defend from the baseline. Rublev has not had the smooth path that Hurkacz has had so far but he has managed to secure wins in each round.
After beating Dan Evans in straight sets, Rublev dropped a set to Soon-woo Kwon. Rublev also dropped a set in his most recent outing, a three-set win over Mackenzie McDonald. The Russian once again started slowly, dropping the first set 6-2.
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He recovered however and then was completely dominant in the rest of the match, winning the final 2 sets 6-3, 6-1 to get the victory and of course, cover the spread of ATP odds. Rublev will likely need to avoid a slow start against Hurkacz because he definitely represents a step up in competition for the young Russian player.
Rublev served 62% on his first serve percentage in the win over McDonald. He won 73% of those first service points (33-45). He won 43% of his second-serve points. That improved as the match went on however as he won 55% of his second-serve points in set 2 and 57% in set 3.
He saved three break points in set two and did not face a break point in the deciding third set. Rublev definitely improved as the match continued and McDonald was not able to keep pace with Rublev's high level.
Rublev's pattern of improving as the match progresses is a good sign for his backers. As he figures out the timing of his opponents, the Russian is able to become more and more aggressive. Once Rublev has your timing and spins figured out, he's able to sit in the zone and dictate points.
He is often sloppy in point construction until he figures out his opponent's timing. But once Rublev settles down and gets comfortable, he is able to dictate pace and tempo and keep his opponent off balance.
Betting Pick
Both men in this match will be reliant on their first serve and the free point that the big bombs can provide. Both men are tall, giving them an excellent strike point angle for them to blast down on the serve. Both men also are able to use spin to move their opponents out of the court, especially on the deuce court.
This gives them wide open areas in which to strike the second ball. This ability to control and win easy first-serve points has been key for both men so far.
Although Rublev has been starting slow, I do like him to get the victory in tonight's match. Rublev will have to be careful not to cede too many points early, however, because a player like Hurkacz will not allow him to come back into the match as easily.
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But as shown in his last couple of matches, once Rublev figures out your timing, he is deadly. This could be an issue for a rhythm player such as Hurkacz who can really fall into the same pattern quite often.
If Rublev is able to solve Hurkacz patterns and timing, this could be another victory for the world number seven. If Hurkacz is able to keep Rublev on his toes and not allow him to settle in and get comfortable, he will get the victory. However, I do have more faith in Rublev figuring things out.
In what will be the toughest test of the tournament for both men, I like Andrey Rublev to get the win. Our bet for tonight's ATP Dubai event is Andrey Rublev ML.
ATP Pick: Andrey Rublev ML (+109) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.