2021 World Series Play of the Day: How to Bet Astros vs. Braves Game 3 (Archive)
With the series tied up at one, which team can get ahead in Game 3 between the Braves and Astros? Here’s our MLB pick and prediction for the World Series Game 3.
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
Friday, October 29, 2021 – 08:09 PM EDT at Truist Park
Probable Pitchers
- Astros: Luis Garcia (11-8 3.30 ERA)
- Braves: Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA)
The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros will play Game 3 of the World Series in Truist Park after splitting the first two games in Minute Maid Park.
This is one of the first World Series I’ve seen in quite some time where starting pitching depth is just awful. Neither team has a surplus of pitching and that’s why we’ve seen the over hit in most games in the postseason, especially in Astros games.
Luis Garcia is slated to take the hill for the Astros as the third-best starter for Houston. He was terrific in his last start but don’t start believing in him like that. Last week, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just one hit and one walk against the Red Sox while striking out seven.
In the previous two postseason appearances, Garcia went 3.2 innings and allowed 10 runs along with seven hits and six walks. That’s more of what you can expect from Garcia.
He has walked 13.2 percent of batters in the last 30 days and has struggled against lefties, allowing a wOBA of .505 with an ISO of .469 in that same time frame. On top of that, he’s allowed an ISO of .185 to righties. All this despite his amazing performance last time out. It just shows you how bad he actually had been.
The Braves lefties like Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Joc Pederson are all batters that have plenty of power potential against Garcia. You can also include Austin Riley, from the right side as a guy with potential against Garcia when it comes to power.
The Braves are hitting 28.9 percent line drives but striking out 26.6 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days using the projected lineup. If the Braves put the ball in play, good things will happen.
On the other hand, the Braves will pitch Ian Anderson, who has been a stud in postseason play. He’s allowed just 5 runs in 7 career postseason starts and while he’s not going deep in games this year, he’s been giving the Braves a chance to win every time he steps on the mound.
Anderson has struggled striking out lefties in the last 30 days, which is solid news for Yordan Alvarez, in particular, who has destroyed righties in that same time frame.
Prediction
I like the Braves in this spot, at home, in Game 3. They’ve got the better pitcher and the more consistent pitcher in Anderson.
The public loved watching Garcia last game and might end up backing him off that one start but if you look through all of his work, especially his first two starts in the postseason, he’s not worth it. There’s no value on him for the MLB odds.
With that said, I’ll take the Braves on the money line at -108 with one of BMR’s best sportsbooks.
MLB Pick: Braves (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.