2021 Rolex Paris Masters Plays of the Day for November 1 (Archive)
The ATP kicks off its final Masters 1000 Tournament of the year in Paris. This is the last chance for players to grab lucrative rankings points before the ATP Finals. Paris is an indoor quick court that favors big servers. With that in mind, which players should we target to make a winning ATP tennis pick?
Andy Murray vs. Jenson Brooksby
Monday, November 01, 2021 – 02:30 PM EDT at Court Central
Jenson Brooksby has burst onto the scene this season. The native of Sacramento, California has brought his hard-nosed grinding style of play to the ATP with unexpected success. Brooksby made the quarter-finals of the US Open where he snagged the first set off of world number one Novak Djokovic, before eventually succumbing in 4 hard-fought sets.
Brooksby’s style is similar to Djokovic in that he is a baseline grinder who is very tough to rattle or coax into errors. Brooksby brings in a hard-nosed attitude and is exceptionally confident for someone his age that has yet to really taste success at the top of the ATP Tour. As the "Big 3" get older and begin to finally disappear from the top of every tournament, Brooksby is poised to become one of the ATP’s top players and dominate the tour within the next 5 years.
We often speak of the "Big 3" Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer. At one point however it was known as the "Big 4". Andy Murray had fought his way into the same level of dominance as these all-time greats. Murray suffered a hip injury however and had to have hip replacement surgery. This was expected to end his career.
Murray has always been a hard-working grinder however and once again he overcame the odds in his return to the court and is playing high-level tennis. Murray is nowhere near his peak form, but he is a crowd favorite. He is able to summon his old elite greatness at any given time making him a dangerous opponent for even the toughest young guns.
Brooksby had to qualify for the tournament and did not make it easy. Brooksby dropped a set to both Peter Gojowycz and Roberto Cabellas Baena. As is his way, Brooksby used his toughness and intensity to grit out the victories. Brooksby will come in with this qualifying experience on the playing surface giving him a slight edge.
Murray’s most recent tournament was also an indoor affair. He lost in the second round to Carlos Alcaraz in Vienna. The indoor hard court experience will help Murray. It helped adjust his style of play to the quick low bounces the indoor hard court surface produces.
Murray has struggled to string together more than two wins since his return to tennis at a Challenger in Italy in February. Murray has beaten several top players since his return but also has fallen to several lesser players. While at his best, Murray can beat anyone, he is also prone to days where he is flat and his body cannot produce the level of tennis which his mind desires.
This match will pit two players who give it all on the court at every point. It will be a battle of 2 fighters, 2 grinders, and 2 guys who never say die. In this matchup, I favor Jenson Brooksby. Brooksby is younger and seems to be getting better every tournament. He has the youthful arrogance to not care who his opponent is on the other side of the net. Brooksby does not get intimidated by the legends of the game, as some of his young counterparts do.
This makes him lethal! He is not prone to jitters or nervousness against the very best players. He comes out and gives his best performances against them. Brooksby is exciting in the fact that he grinds and never gives up, even down by a large margin. Given the pricing of this match, Brooksby is the best bet on the board.
To get plus money with one of the up-and-coming players, who are within a couple of years of being one of the top 5 in the world, against an older player that is prone to physical breakdowns, is a gift from the bookmakers. Brooksby will not be intimidated by Murray’s accolades.
At +144 the implied probability that he wins is 41%. I think Brooksby’s ATP odds are much higher than that, even above 50%. This gives us a great edge that we simply cannot pass up. Murray will feel like he is facing a younger version of himself. This will be a hard-fought match that will be great to watch and wager on.
Tennis Pick: Jenson Brooksby (+144) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.