There are so many different elements to consider when betting on the NBA Playoffs. Let’s delve into different elements that hopefully can enhance your chances of winning. Fans and bettors of the NBA annually look forward to the postseason. Emotions are ramped up, teams are allowing more fans to enter their arenas (at playoff prices, just sayin’) and the intensity level is cranked way up.
With this, those of us who have meticulously studied the betting odds for months during the regular season, have to make adjustments for the NBA Playoffs. Like everything in sports betting, the marketplace is continually evolving and to have success against the best online betting sites, you have to up your standards at the same time. Here are tips to follow to do just that.
The Zig-Zag Theory is/was a very profitable method to bet in the NBA postseason for years. The basic principle was to back the team that just lost its previous contest. For a number of seasons in the late 1990s and early 2000s, bettors were rewarded for sticking to the principles and sometimes handsomely. However, that theory became a shooting star years ago and has fizzled out to a 50-50 proposition.
Instead, do this, watch for Top 3 seeds in either conference that lose their first game in a series when not playing another Top 3 seed. Choosing a top 3 is important, which we’ll explain in another section further down, and this has won in the low 60’s percent for some time. When this quality of a club falters at home, they invariably are a good bet in Game 2 to win and frequently cover the spread. This year, both Utah and Denver lost in their opening contest and bounced back resoundingly.
Though the NBA has become a three-point shooting league because the analytics department has quantified that is the most effective way to maximize each possession, that’s not always the case once the regular season concludes. Invariably, the pace of games slows down in the postseason, as each possession means more for both the offense and defense. Oddsmakers have long adjusted to today’s current style of play. However, that doesn’t mean opportunities don’t exist.
Our advice is to look at various defensive statistics like field goal percentage allowed, points allowed per 100 possessions, or dig deeper if you choose and find matchups involving Top 10 or better clubs that are not afraid to compete. This gives you a better chance of cashing since these are defensive-minded teams. One other caveat, Game 7’s of a series are notorious Under plays. Again, oddsmakers know this and have adjusted. This used to hit in the low 70’s percent, however, today it’s more in the low 60’s, yet is still profitable.
With at max four games a day in the playoffs and the teams hardly ever playing on consecutive days, understanding how the last game played out or spotting unique info can be a window into finding a winner for NBA picks. In looking at box scores, the goal is to determine why the final score ended up as it did.
Take the Atlanta and New York series in Game 1. The Hawks won 107-105 as closing 2.5-point road favorites. In looking at all the numbers, they basically were as tight as the final score. What stood out is the Knicks didn’t play their usual defense based on field goal percentage. If they tightened that up, especially at home, that should improve their chances of winning, which they did, 101-92 as a 1.5-point favorite to even the series. When studying the boxscores, find abnormal situations, like shooting well above or below normal, or making or missing five or more 3’s than the team average. This and other factors could influence a selection.
This writer/handicapper has written about this before at Bookmakersreview.com and other sites. In the entire history of the NBA, only twice has a team not seeded in the Top 3 won the championship. That doesn’t mean they cover all the spreads, however, the wise bettor can pick the spots to find success and beat the books.