Betting Update: Bookmakers go for South Africa as 4/9 Favourites For Today's Rugby World Cup Final

LONDON, October 20 /PRNewswire/ -- South Africa looked the better team coming in to the tournament and were obviously the superior team when the sides met in Paris five weeks ago, with as everyone now knows the scoreline finishing 36-0.

Visibly, South Africa have been the more polished outfit through the tournament since, with multiple tries against Fiji in the quarter-final, and Argentina in the semi-final contrasting with Josh Lewsey's sole touchdown in the second minute against France last Saturday for England. And South Africa should go on to be a more considerable force both on future autumn tours and back in the Tri Nations and at the next World Cup - have you seen the ages of Francois Steyn, JP Pietesen, Jaque Fourie, Fourie du Preez, Schalk Burger and Juan Smith?!

However, the possibility remains that the Springboks could well not be the better team on Saturday night in the Stade de France, and that drab, tired-old England will become the first nation to defend the Webb Ellis Cup and first team to win it after losing a pool encounter.

Value at around 9/4 to do so? Certainly not with the bookies crying "patriotic punt" from the rafters for more than a fortnight.

But to stay within nine points on the handicap, currently at evens with Stan James - certainly. That is a 50-50 call Max Oram at Easyodds.com would definitely agree with, going on levels of playing form and personnel, and the historical precedent of tense finals (extra-time in 2003 in Sydney and 1995 in Johannesburg, 12-6 in 1991 at Twickenham).

All five head-to-head contests in the last 12 months though should be consigned to the bin in terms of collateral form - the pool encounter was car-crash bad, the South Africans were stunned by England's incompetence into not scoring heavily enough; the preceding summer and autumn tours contained teams barely recognisable in personnel and outlook and had far different purposes.

This St Denis showdown should be a nerve-shredding affair, dominated by the boots of Jonny Wilkinson and Percy Montgomery. Other wagers to be considered as alternatives are Blue Square's 10/11 that the second half contains more points, and going long of these two's efforts at 10 and 14 respectively with Ladbrokes and Blue Square (5/6).

Three or less tries at 4/6 with Blue Square looks a solid option too. Apart from the two summer clashes and the red card-inspired 53-3 England rout of November 2002, the four-mark has only been reached once in 15 confrontations.

The England front five of Andrew Sheridan, Mark Regan and skipper Phil Vickery - backed up from the bench by George Shuter and Matt Stevens - that pummelled Australia and disheartened the hosts more than held their own against Os du Randt, John Smit and CJ van der Linde in the Pool clash.

It was the others that did not turn up then with a shambolic performance that piled schoolboy-error on schoolboy-error in failing to defend the blindside of rucks, missing touches off penalties and then clunking straight-in from outside the 22. Now Simon Shaw and Ben Kay are claiming their own lineout ball more surely.

Backrowers Martin Corry, Lewis Moody and Nick Easter are moving the champions forward in the tackle, at the breakdown and off the base of the scum. Scrum-half Andy Gomarsall has time to weigh-up options - spin pass to first-receiver, box-kick, grubber or punt-to-touch.

And most importantly of all Wilkinson is back after missing the original St Denis clash and the preceding run-out against the USA. Even if yet to reach past heights of supreme fluency with boot off the ground and drop-goal, England are a more comfortable and controlled outfit in both defence and attack with Wilko at pivot.

It is like the forwards know he will instinctively play the percentages to support them in everything that they do, and the outside backs know his presence, and the Pavlovian opposition rush-defence in response creates space for them.

The touchdowns were not forthcoming against the Wallabies and Les Bleus but the opportunities were multiple. Just as they were against Samoa and Tonga, wins that cannot be sniffed at when South Africa's formline also includes a quarter-final against fellow south Pacific Islanders Fiji, and the Springboks both crossed the whitewash and regrouped beneath the posts regularly then.

Whether or not these England improvements in form are enough to shove Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha off their own throw and dampen the destructive qualities of Burger, Smith and Danie Rossouw in the loose that allow du Preez and Butch James to give the likes of lightning fast Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen room to operate, is still doubtful.

But Springbok coach Jake White, who has not seen his charges moves out of second gear throughout the competition, is right to worry about his side freezing on the big occasion compared to England's been-there-and-done-it men, and punters must put it into their equation for the green gameplan. They will not want to be too expansive too early, like the Argentinians were last Sunday night and turn over field position, momentum and tries through early knock-ons.

And with tournament top-points scorer Montgomery in metronomic form, and Steyn a more than lethal back-up from distance, South Africa will be as delighted as England to keep the scoreboard ticking if and when penalties are accrued.

Only once a platform has been established will the laager be broken and the wagons stampede towards that holy grail of a second World Cup.

If there are tries to be scored Habana is the obvious man to head towards, and Stan James's Anytime 9/4 is a stand-out that cannot be ignored with 30 touchdowns in 34 caps for South Africa; the Springbok speedster needs only one more to break Jonah Lomu's Rugby World Cup record eight tournament notches. Interception-bursts are his speciality but there could be extra space too with being marked by the still relatively-new to internationals Paul Sackey.

But don't ignore the anytime claims of Fourie du Preez at BestPrice 13/2. Arguably the most-influential player at this World Cup with his darting runs and slick handling and passing, du Preez has all the mannerisms that made 1995 Springbok No. 9 Joost van der Westhuizyen such a weapon as an extra backrow sniper close to the line or secondary winger out wide. He can add to his two tournament touchdowns.

England tries against the major nations have proved priceless jewels in recent months and the man to get one could be the lucky loser of the team Mark Cueto also at 13/2.

Drafted in on the left wing for hamstring-victim Josh Lewsey, Cueto has a chance to refind his best scoring form on the ultimate stage and has a great scoring record against the Springboks, notching in both of last November's encounters and on only his second Red Rose appearance in November 2004. Watch for a catch from a Wilkinson cross-kick as much as a down-the-line finish.

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Andrew Newton, Managing Editor, +44(0)20-7691-0660