26-07-2007 Pinnacle Pulse 71 (Part 1) - Betting on Soccer Micro-Leagues

While Locke is busy teaching you how to bet on that most American of pastimes (no, not Competitive Eating… Baseball), it seems like a good time to mention that the world’s game has still been going strong all summer long. Nearly all of the world’s biggest soccer leagues take a summer hiatus, but one look at the betting menu of PinnacleSports.com will show you that there is still plenty of action to bet on. Aside from the large summer tournaments like the Copa America, games are also being played in most of Northern Europe and South America. Granted, many of these leagues don’t have the big name players to capture the imagination of most bettors, but by ignoring the so-called ‘micro-leagues’ you are missing out on a lot of potential betting value.

Why should you bet the micro-leagues? Well for starters you get the same low commission margins we deal on the big soccer leagues. At -104/-104 (that’s 1.96/1.96 in decimal odds style) on sides and -105/-105 (1.95/1.95) on total goals scored, it only takes the smallest edge for you to show a profit from your handicapping.

Now, combine the low margins with the fact that many of these leagues are untouched markets and the potential for profit really shines through. When we first start accepting bets on a micro-league, the limits are too small for the big professional players to notice, which means much of the action in the early days comes from recreational players. This is a huge benefit for the average bettor. Since the limits are small and the leagues are not widely tracked in the mainstream press, any amount of research you do means that you gain an edge on the field. Without any professionals to take aim at the lines and sharpen them up, you are more likely to get soft lines, which will help your profitability in the long-term. Thus, with just a small portion of your time spent studying the field, you could become a sharp for these leagues.

Granted, being the sharpest guy in a league where you can only get in fifty dollars a pop isn’t exactly a get-rich-quick scheme, but what we have seen with many of our micro-leagues is that they quickly graduate into full-fledged betting markets. Areas where you once could only bet fifty dollars often see limit increases to $500, $1,000, and even $5,000 a bet as the volume goes up, and the very act of new bettors (like yourself) getting involved in a league makes it bigger. Thus by getting a handle on the leagues when they are small, you can pinpoint areas where you are sharp when the market is weak and then take huge advantage of what you learn when the league graduates to the big time for betting purposes.

Some of you might be a bit lost about how to go about tackling a new, completely unknown league, but the basics are very similar to what you would do for La Liga, Serie A, or the Premiership. Look at the current results table. Examine how strong the teams are, how many goals they score at home and away, and then look at the odds posted for upcoming games and figure out if anything seems strange to you. Asian handicaps are sometimes difficult to predict when you are just getting familiar with a league, but over/under total goals scored in many of the micros are exceptionally soft, and winning on totals bets in the micro-leagues often seem to come down to some simple mathematics. Expect us to have a lot more to say about soccer handicapping in a future column.

For those of you looking over our massive offering of leagues and finding it difficult to determine where to start, my advice is to pick something local. Any news you read about these small leagues gives you an edge over the field, which should increase your chances of winning. Even when the big leagues get rolling in the coming weeks, micro-leagues will continue to offer value that you likely won’t get anywhere else.

Here’s a look at what our sharps have been playing lately in three of the micro-leagues that graduated to bigger limits:

Icelandic
One of the things you notice from seeing a lot of bets come through is that the team at the top of the table rarely seems to earn value plays from most sharps, especially in smaller markets. This is because typically the line already includes a lot of general public action/opinion on the favorite in these games, meaning most of our sharp players steer clear. Meanwhile, undervalued mid-table clubs are the sharp’s bread and butter. This is particularly true in Icelandic soccer, where FH Hafnarfjordur (the team at the top) sees almost no sharp bets, while mid-table clubs like Fylkir, HK Kopavogur, and Breidablik are earning consistent sharp attention, especially when playing at home.

Lithuanian A
Lithuanian A can get surprising amounts of volume, depending on which teams are playing. The sharp plays in this league recently have mostly been heavily fading (betting against) FC Vilnius and Interas, while taking the Over in these games also seems to be yielding dividends.

Brazil Serie B
Overs in Brasiliense’s games have been on fire lately, while bottom-half club Avai has been enjoying a good run of form recently and has merited a lot of side action in July. Additionally, despite giving up 33 goals in their away games, Unders for Avai have not only been seeing sharp play recently, but have also been paying off. Finally, Portuguesa is a side that has seen occasional sharp play over the last month, mostly in their away games, which is an intriguing twist.

Moving back to the big leagues, soccer futures for all the major European leagues are now available for betting on PinnacleSports.com, as are week 1 fixtures. Next week, we’ll cover all the action in the futures market and the kickoff of Ligue 1. Until then, may the soccer minnows in the micro-leagues make you a mint.

Sharp Plays: Baseball Pitcher Focus

Bartolo Colon:
Colon has been a matter of debate amongst our sharps for some time. Almost every game he pitches we get two-sided sharp action. Some of them think that Colon is an ineffective pitcher, and there is evidence that he’s lost a good deal off his fastball. Others think there’s nothing wrong with him, or at least nothing serious enough to reflect how low his stock has fallen this year. All this sharp action offers PinnacleSports.com the opportunity to deal these games with confidence, knowing that we have a good number once both sides are accounted for.

Carlos Zambrano:
Zambrano is one of Baseball’s most volatile and unreliable pitchers, but when he is at his best, he shines. Partially as a result of that, he has an extraordinarily high split between his value on the road and his value at Wrigley. The sharps will often back him at home, then those same sharps turn around and disrespect him on the road. Most of the time home/road splits are considered random fluctuations or too small to worry about in the case of position players. Be very wary of someone pointing to such statistical splits as part of their handicapping on a regular basis.

Braden Looper:
The Cardinals have fallen on hard times, but Looper has big problems of his own. No one’s stock has fallen more than Looper’s in the eyes of our sharps, who have little memory of his earlier successful conversion to a starter. It is looking more and more doubtful he will bounce back, and bettors have begun adjusting to the new reality of the situation.

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

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