21-09-2007 Premiership Betting - Life After Mourinho

How Will Chelsea React Without Mourinho on the Bridge

The dust is settling at Stamford Bridge after the departure of the self-titled ‘Special One’, leaving the tabloids to deliver their conspiracy theories as to whether Mourinho jumped, or was pushed, and how many millions his pay-off amounted to. The only question bettors must however, address, is how it will affect Chelsea’s performances on the pitch, under new boss Avram Grant?

Misconceptions About Impact of New Managers

There is a widely held belief that football teams perform better under a new manager. This is based on the theory that players will be eager to impress their new boss and that a new broom sweeps clean. While it is true that a badly performing team may be revitalised by a new leader with new ideas, that has been disproved as a universal truth, and bad results aren’t the only catalyst for managerial change, as is the case with Mourinho.

Though there isn’t a standard value assigned to the benefit that a new manager might bring, you can assume that bookmakers build a ‘feel-good-factor’ into the prices offered about teams who they perceive as potentially benefiting from a new stewardship. Regardless of the shortcomings of the standard approach to teams under new management, the case of Chelsea simply doesn’t fit any such reductionist assumptions, for a number of reasons.

Chelsea’s Poison Chalice

Jose Mourinho brought success to Chelsea, where his predecessor, Claudio Ranieri failed, despite spending £100million on new players. Though Chelsea’s start to the season has been uninspiring, it is by no means disastrous, and Mourinho left having never seen his side lose a league game at Stamford Bridge. In summary he leaves behind him a very successful team, with whom he enjoyed a very special relationship, with fans in mourning and with his reputation intact. The vacant post is a poisoned chalice if ever there was one.

The root of the problems that have led to Mourinho’s departure appear to be in the boardroom, and his differences with club owner, Roman Abramovich. Though unsubstantiated, it is believed that Abramovich felt his team wasn’t exciting enough for the money he had invested. Mourinho was motivated by results, whereas his boss seems to want spectacular goals and champagne football, a Premiership Harlem Globetrotters to bring him the Champions League.

As their relationship soured, Mourinho remained hugely popular with the fans, while Abramovich was perhaps seen as a necessary evil. If the fans assume their idol left because of the Russian billionaire, he will attract outright criticism, as will his consorts, and Chelsea’s new boss has been hand-picked by Abramovich. On top of this handicap, former director of football, Avram Grant, may also struggle to win fans over simply because of his lack of experience. Grant’s only other previous club positions were in the Israeli first division, after which he managed the national side.

One of the points of friction between Mourinho and Abramovich were the signings of Ballack and Shevchenko, which the Russian appeared to force against his manager’s wishes. Clearly Mourinho had his own favourites and may have struggled to reconcile the two groups, but if the most charismatic men in football failed to make Chelsea one big happy family, what chance does a stooge of the club owner stand?

Winning It For Jose

Grant faces a baptism of fire, taking on Manchester United at Old Trafford for his first game in charge. The odds at PinnacleSports.com, always an excellent barometer of sentiment, spoke loudly against the chances of the Londoners. In reaction to the news of Mourinho’s exit, Chelsea have drifted from 2.00 (0/scratch & +0.5) to 2.160 while United have hardened from 1.926 (0/scratch & -0.5) to 1.794, in market that remains priced to only 102%. The Blues are weakened by injuries to key players such as Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard, Ricardo Carvalho and Michael Ballack, and may still be deflated by the 1-1 draw at home to Rosenborg in midweek, on top of all that they have lost their inspirational manager.

Sometimes however, it pays to swim against the tide. Chelsea still have a world class squad and there is a suspicion that rather than capitulate at the Theatre of Dream, they might think ‘let’s win this one for Jose’, in which case their current price at PinnacleSports.com could represent real value.

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