12-06-2007 Premiership Betting Analysis from PinnacleSports.com

Forbes magazine’s annual rich list of football clubs published in March of this year showed that ten of the top twenty-five most valuable football clubs in the world play in the Premiership. Their relative positions in that elite group correlate closely with success on the field, underlining the close relationship between spending power and success, the prevailing philosophy of ‘speculate to accumulate’ seems to hold true. The frenetic horse-trading of the summer months is the most important phase in the process of Premiership clubs reorganising and strengthening their squads, providing ante-post players with vital clues to next season’s competition.

The importance to Arsenal of retaining the services of Thierry Henry cannot be overstated. Henry is an example one of an ever rarer breed – a proven Premiership scorer. Prior to last season’s injury marred campaign, the Frenchman recorded five successive 20-plus tallies, earning the top-scorer award on four occasions, two of which coincided with title winning seasons. Speculation around Henry’s future refuses to go away, despite him committing to the club for the remainder of his career. Henry is advised by Darren Dein, the son of former vice-chairman, David Dein, who’s exit in April after 24 years at the club has fuelled the speculation.

Dein’s resignation was reportedly due to his preference for approval of a buy-out by an American billionaire, Stan Kroenke, who currently holds a 12% stake, which is opposed by the rest of the Arsenal board. How much of this friction will trickle down to the pitch is hard to gauge, but if it does cause Henry to leave, the consequences will be significant. It looks however like being a war of attrition between Kroenke and the Arsenal board, which won’t be settled in the short term.

The Gunners were generally weak on the road last term, perhaps missing the experience of wise heads such as Viera, Campbell and Lauren. A couple of recognised international signings are anticipated, but the club operates a strict wage policy which can be a stumbling block to players already earning huge sums. Wenger’s only purchase to date is promising Polish goalkeeper, Lukasz Fabianski, who is seen as a long term replacement for Jens Lehmann. The important items on the Arsenal manager’s shopping list remain, including a clinical finisher, - having previously made uncharacteristic misjudgements in that area - and a left winger, with French international, Florent Malouda, the front runner.

At least the Gunners and their fans have now had a full season to get accustomed to their new stadium. Despite the unfamiliar surroundings Arsenal suffered just one defeat at the Emirates Stadium last season in all competitions. If Wenger can add some experienced signings to his talented young squad, and cure their away day blues, Arsenal could become credible title challengers at a decent price with PinnacleSports.com.

Chelsea Tighten Belt But Still Top Spending Charts
The 2005 ante-post Premiership market saw a huge plunge on Chelsea the season after Roman Abramovich’s revolution at Chelsea had begun, when despite spending £100m, Claudio Ranieri failed to land a single trophy. With the benefit of hindsight, the 6/1 available at PinnacleSports.com the following year represented amazing value, if bettors correctly anticipated that the arrival of Mourinho would be the crucial catalyst in the process of winning titles at Chelsea. In contrast, the Blues have never been shorter ante-post than last year after the Special One made Michael Ballack the Premiership’s highest earner and Andriy Shevchenko (£30m) its record signing, yet they failed to deliver the title. The message for Premiership bettors is – money alone doesn’t buy success.

Having spent £250million Roman Abramovich was rewarded with back-to-back Premiership titles, but that level of flagrant spending has proved unsustainable. When Mourinho needed defensive cover in the 2007 January transfer window, Abramovich’s answer was ‘Nyet’. The tension arising from this disagreement came close to ending their relationship, and was certainly a factor in the loss of the title and possibly their failure in the Champions League at the hands of Liverpool. Bettors must decide whether harmony has been restored.

In any case the new prudence at Chelsea looks likely to remain, chief executive Peter Kenyon, aims for the club to break even by 2009-10. After their league success in 2005, the club posted a record £140m loss, posing the question as to whether Mourinho can now succeed without financial carte blanche?

The first indication of a change in transfer policy is given by Mourinho’s first summer signing midfielder, Steve Sidwell. He should suffer none of the problems of adjustment after very successful first season in the Premiership with Reading, but it remains to be seen whether he has the potential to develop into the kind of world class player Chelsea need. Mourinho will be glad to finally welcome Brazilian central defender, Alex, into the fold after work permit problems. The Tank was a tower of strength at PSV and will be a superior replacement for the bungling Khalid Boulahrouz who may be followed out the door by Geremi and Paulo Ferreira.

Chelsea have been investing heavily in their academy, which is producing interesting prospects such as Israeli international, Ben Sahar (17yr), and Scott Sinclair (18yr) . However, with just one first-team start between them, they are players for the future and not the impending season, for which Mourinho will need reinforcements. The capture of Claudio Pizarro from Bayern Munich adds another attacking option but with 71 goals in five Bundesliga seasons, the Peruvian is hardly a goal machine.

Chelsea did lift two domestic trophies last season, but success is measured in Champions League victories and Premiership titles at Stamford Bridge. The expectation is that Mourinho must win at least one of these this term in order to see out his contract in 2010. While significant transfer activity at the club could be critical in tying down long term contracts for Lampard and Terry to allow them to concentrate 100% on the field.

Ultimately Chelsea’s chances next season may rest on the abilities of Jose Mourinho to flourish under financial restraint, while establishing complete squad unity while hoping his squad avoids the injury blight of last term.

United Spending Spree Sends Strong Statement of Intent
With the original Chelsea blueprint for Premiership success consigned to the rubbish bin, existing and prospective owners will be looking at the Glazers immediate success at Manchester United as the way to win a title. No-one other than the PR department at Old Trafford would attribute the Red Devils’ success solely to their new owners. The key point is that they didn’t provide a blank cheque to Fergie, who clearly used last summer’s available funds wisely in signing Michael Carrick for what seemed at the time expensive at £18.6m, and the £7m paid for Serbian, Nemanja Vidic, which now seems like a bargain.

This time around the Glazers have provided Ferguson with a bigger budget which he has been quick off the mark in using to reinforce his squad for a successful title defence, sending out a clear statement of intent. Ferguson’s Portuguese assistant, Carlos Queiroz – credited with the discovery of a ‘Golden Generation’ of Portuguese footballers in the 90’s - looks to have played a crucial role in signing two players in Cristiano Ronaldo’s mould from under the noses of Europe’s biggest clubs. 21 year old winger Nani from Ronaldo’s former club, Sporting Lisbon and 19 year old Brazilian midfielder, Anderson, favourably compared with Ronaldinho, both having played for Gremio in Brazil. The pair cost about £30m which is expensive for relatively inexperienced players. Despite his wealth of experience, Fergie has shown transfer fallibility with the likes of Kleberson and Djemba-Djemba so a watching brief is advised. If however, the new signings do quickly come up to scratch, aligned with Rooney and Ronaldo, they could offer United a potentially world beating attacking line-up for many years to come.

Fergie’s other major piece of business looks like being a much safer bet. Owen Hargreaves was one of the only England squad members to emerge from the World Cup with credit. As an England regular he should adapt quickly to the Premiership, while already possessing considerable Champions League experience. Hargreaves could finally prove the long-term successor to Roy Keane. Though Michael Carrick wears the Irishman’s no.16 shirt, Hargreaves has more of the spoiling qualities of Keane, but the pair can easily play in harmony. The only piece missing from the United jigsaw is a top quality striker, but Ferguson isn’t alone in chasing that elusive component.

The Premiership has become the lowest scoring league in Europe. In the 1994-5 season, six strikers scored 20 goals or more, while last season Didier Drogba was the only player to fall into that bracket. As this trend looks set to continue and more money pours into the Premiership, possessing a proven goal-scorer is becoming a critical component for any side with title pretensions. United’s top-scorer last season was Ronaldo who doesn’t even play in a central attacking role yet managed 17 goals, helped by a hatful of penalties. United’s strength is that goals were spread right across their team, producing 83 in 38 games, 19 more than Chelsea in second place. If United do find an out-and-out striker, this could be bad news for the rest of the Premiership!

Can the Scouse ‘Franchise’ Succeed?
The ticker-tape had barely settled on the Olympic Stadium in Athens after Liverpool’s Champions League defeat before manager, Rafa Benitez, talked about the need for decisive transfer activity. "We must quickly sign our number one targets and spend big and spend now." The Spaniard was reportedly angry and frustrated at the lack of funds made available by the clubs new American owners, Tom Hicks and George Gillett. Benitez clearly feels that his squad isn’t big enough nor of sufficient quality to contest four competitions over nine months, let alone stand a chance of ending the League title drought stretching back to 1990.

The size of the task in hand, facing the might of the big three - Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United - is illustrated by the fact that the Pool’s record Premiership points total in 2006 of 82 points, still saw them nine points behind Chelsea. Last season the Reds finished 21 points adrift of United and Benitez believes Liverpool will only win the battle for the Premiership if they prevail in the summer transfer bidding wars.

Benitez has won an FA Cup and made two Champions League finals in three years at the club, but third is the best league position he has achieved despite investing £100m. A quarter of that was spent on Peter Crouch, Mark Gonzalez, Craig Bellamy and Momo Sissoko, but of that quartet, only Crouch made a fleeting appearance as a substitute in Athens. All are now facing the axe along with Sami Hyypia, Bolo Zenden and Robbie Fowler.

Accepting such disappointments, Benitez is employing a two pronged approach of trying to bring in world class talent while also developing younger prospects such as Lucas Leiva, - U20 Brazilian captain - and Hungarian duo Krisztian Nemeth (18) and Andras Simon (17) – who both excelled for Hungary at the Uefa Under-17 championships in 2006. That trio won’t however win the Premiership for the Reds any time soon.

The prospects for topping next season’s table will probably rely on the success of landing a world class striker who can deliver 20 plus goals, and a proven winger to provide the ammunition. The signing of Ukrainian striker, Andriy Voronin, was the first under the new US regime, which may provide an important indication of the club’s ambition, or lack of it. Voronin cannot be called world class, having previously played for four different German sides over seven seasons, he has managed just 65 goals, and the record of his two compatriots in the Premiership – Shevchenko and Rebrov – is not encouraging.

Gillett made the mistake of calling Liverpool a franchise during an early press conference, but that clanger probably illustrated the true regard he has for the deal. "I don’t know if we are capable of challenging for the title next year," stated the American. “We want to make progress but it is a multiple-year programme. We want to challenge but we won’t do it overnight.”

The transition in the boardroom has caused a paralysis of decision making which has frustrated Benitez. The anticipated arrival of Gillett’s son, Foster, to run the club and write cheques for Benitez, cannot come soon enough.

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